NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 51: PATRIOTS VS FALCONS
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Noirot
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Noirot » 10 Ene 2017, 15:50

Cid_Campeador escribió:
guille4s escribió:
Noirot escribió:Bueno, los Texans son un equipo que a nadie le interesa, pero hay que decir que han sido la mejor defensa contra pase, la tercera mejor contra carrera y la mejor en yardas totales concedidas.

Leía que (creo) que el mejor en yardas concedidas había sido finalista las 3 últimas SB's... este año por supuesto se rompe la racha...



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff
Equipos que quedan según DVOA - Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), ajustando por calendario rival, vaya. Bastante útil esta página.
Total: NE(1), DAL(2), ATL(3), PIT(5), KC(6), GB(7), SEA(9), HOU(29!)
Off: NE (2), DAL(4), ATL(1), PIT (8), KC 13), GB (4), SEA(17), HOU (30)
Deff: NE(16), DAL(17), ATL(27), PIT(11), KC(14), GB(20), SEA(5), HOU(7)
ST: NE(7), DAL(10), ATL(8), PIT(16), KC(2), GB(20), SEA(13), HOU(32)


Para un primerizo... podrías explicarme que es eso del DVOA y como influye, Gracias!


DVOA EXPLAINED

One running back runs for three yards. Another running back runs for three yards. Which is the better run? This sounds like a stupid question, but it isn’t. In fact, this question is at the heart of nearly all of the analysis on Football Outsiders.

Several factors can differentiate one three-yard run from another. What is the down and distance? Is it third-and-2 or second-and-15? Where on the field is the ball? Does the player get only three yards because he hits the goal line and scores? Is the player’s team up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and thus running out the clock; or down by two touchdowns, and thus facing a defense that is playing purely against the pass? Is the running back playing against the porous defense of the Raiders, or the stalwart defense of the Bears?

Conventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on their net yardage. The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now, why would they do that? Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that -- by gaining yards and achieving first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player’s value or a team’s performance. All the yards in the world won’t help a team win if they all come in six-yard chunks on third-and-10.

The popularity of fantasy football only exacerbates the problem. Fans have gotten used to judging players based on how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how much they help real teams win and lose. Typical fantasy scoring further skews things by counting the yard between the one and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other yards on the field (each yard worth 0.1 points, a touchdown worth 6). Let’s say Larry Fitzgerald catches a pass on third-and-15 and goes 50 yards but gets tackled two yards from the goal line, and then Andre Ellington takes the ball on first-and-goal from the two-yard line and plunges in for the score. Has Ellington done something special? Not really. When an offense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the two-yard line, they're expected to score a touchdown five out of six times. Ellington is getting credit for the work done by the passing game.

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down, based on work done by Pete Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in their seminal book, The Hidden Game of Football. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.

We then expand upon that basic idea with a more complicated system of “success points,” improved over the past few years with a lot of mathematics and a bit of trial and error. A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between (e.g., eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 “success points”). Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards (assuming those yards result in a first down), four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Losing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions occurring on fourth down during the last two minutes of a game incur no penalty whatsoever, but all others average -6 points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the location of the interception (since an interception tipped at the line is more likely to produce a long return than an interception on a 40-yard pass). A fumble is worth anywhere from -1.7 to -4.0 points depending on how often a fumble in that situation is lost to the defense -- no matter who actually recovers the fumble. Red zone plays get a bonus: 20 percent for team offense, five percent for team defense, and 10 percent for individual players. There is a bonus given for a touchdown, which acknowledges that the goal line is significantly more difficult to cross than the previous 99 yards (although this bonus is nowhere near as large as the one used in fantasy football).

(Our system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to our subsequent research, which added larger penalties for turnovers, the fractional points, and a slightly higher baseline for success on first down. The reason why all fumbles are counted, no matter whether they are recovered by the offense or defense, is explained in FO Basics.)

Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on.

Going back to our example of the three-yard rush, if Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances in which the average NFL running back gains only one yard, then Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position. Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play on which, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back gains four yards, that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position. Once we make all our adjustments, we can evaluate the difference between this player’s rate of success and the expected success rate of an average running back in the same situation (or between the opposing defense and the average defense in the same situation, etc.). Add up every play by a certain team or player, divide by the total of the various baselines* for success in all those situations, and you get VOA, or Value Over Average.

The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, technically the defensive stats are actually “offense-adjusted.” If it seems weird, think of the “D” in “DVOA” as standing for “opponent-Dependent” or something.)

The final step in calculating DVOA involves normalizing each year's ratings. As you may know, offensive levels in the NFL have gone up and down over the years. Right now, the overall level of offense in the league is probably at its highest level of all time. Therefore, we need to ensure that DVOA in a given season isn't skewed by league environment.

For teams, DVOA is normalized so that league averages for offense and defense are 0%. (However, because pass plays are more efficient than run plays, league averages for team passing and team rushing are not zero.) For players, DVOA is normalized separately for individual passing, individual rushing, and the three individual receiving groups (wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs) so that the league average for each is 0%.

Of course, one of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic is interpreting its scale. To use DVOA, you have to know what numbers represent good performance and what numbers represent bad performance. We’ve made that easy. In all cases, 0% represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents a situation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA represents a situation that favors the defense. This is why the best offenses have positive DVOA ratings (last year, Green Bay led the league at +24.7%) and the best defenses have negative DVOA ratings (with Seattle number one in 2014 at -16.8%). In most years, the best and worst offenses tend to rate around ± 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend to rate around ± 25%. For starting players, the scale tends to reach roughly ± 40% for passing and receiving, and ± 30% for rushing. As you might imagine, some players with fewer attempts will surpass both extremes.

DVOA has three main advantages over more traditional ways to judge NFL performance. First, by subtracting defense DVOA from offense DVOA (and adding in special teams DVOA, which is described below), we can create a set of team rankings that's based on play-by-play efficiency rather than total yards. Because DVOA does a better job of explaining past wins and predicting future wins than total yards, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better (or worse) a team really is relative to the rest of the league.

Because it compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, this advantage also applies vis-a-vis situational team rankings. The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it eliminates the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down. The same could be said about plays on fourth down or in the red zone.

Second, unlike formulas based on comparing drives rather than individual plays, DVOA can be separated into a myriad of splits (e.g., by down, by week, by distance needed for a first down, etc.). Therefore, we're able to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. All Pittsburgh third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. Josh McCown and Mike Glennon can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game. This doesn't just give us a better idea of which team or player is better. More importantly, it helps us understand why they're better, and therefore allows us to offer prescriptions for improvement in the future.

Finally, a third advantage of DVOA is that normalization makes our comparisons of current teams and players to past teams and players (going back to 1989) more accurate than those based on traditional statistics like wins or total yards, as well as those based on more sophisticated metrics that aren't normalized (e.g., expected points added, passer rating differential, etc.). For instance, which Denver Broncos team had the better offense: the 2013 edition with Peyton Manning, or the 1998 club led by Terrell Davis? Going by total yardage (7,317 vs. 6,092) or even yards per play (6.3 vs. 5.9), it's not even a contest. The 2013 team were clearly better. However, this ignores the fact that the average NFL offense was much more pass-oriented, and thus more efficient, in 2013 than in 1998. If we take the difference in offensive environment into account by using DVOA, it turns out that the 1998 Broncos offense was slightly better relative to the rest of the league (34.5% to 33.5%).

*It should be noted that certain plays are included in DVOA for offense but not for defense. Other plays are included for both, but scored differently. This leads to separate baselines on each side of the ball. For instance

Only four total penalties are included. Two penalties count as pass plays on both sides of the ball: intentional grounding and defensive pass interference. The other two penalties are included for offense only: false starts and delay of game. Because the inclusion of these penalties means a group of negative plays that don’t count as either passes or runs, the league averages for pass offense and run offense are higher than the league averages for pass defense and run defense.
Aborted snaps and incomplete backwards lateral passes are only penalized on offense, not rewarded on defense.
Adjustments for playing from behind or with a lead in the fourth quarter are different for offense and defense, as are adjustments for the final two minutes of the first half when the offense is not near field-goal range.
Offense gets a slight penalty and defense gets a slight bonus for games indoors.


De nada... :todos a botar:
Sólo porque alguien sea miembro de una minoría étnica no significa que no sea un pequeño cabr0n desagradable.

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ravens
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por ravens » 10 Ene 2017, 16:02

Si alguien se lo lee que haga un resumen :D
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Aker_En_Madrid » 10 Ene 2017, 16:29

Torneo de Madden organizado por Zanoni
http://www.tgifridays.es/promociones/ma ... ays-cup-17
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Devils In My HeaD » 10 Ene 2017, 16:33

LULarteezyLUL escribió:
Devils In My HeaD escribió:No hay mucho QB en este draft tras el chasco de Watson, .

:todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar:

Y llama bocazas a los demas :todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar: :todos a botar:

Pues ha hecho un partidazo frente a Bama, lo cual no quita que llevase una temporada decepcionante y hubiera caído a 2ª ronda en los boards de muchos analistas. Tras la final volverá a ganar hype y con los atributos físicos que tiene en la Combine volverá a subir al igual que Kizer o Mahomes. Y que las franquicias QB hungry siempre se van a jugar con algún QB en el draft es la canción de todos los años.
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guille4s
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por guille4s » 11 Ene 2017, 11:51

Cid_Campeador escribió:
guille4s escribió:
Noirot escribió:Bueno, los Texans son un equipo que a nadie le interesa, pero hay que decir que han sido la mejor defensa contra pase, la tercera mejor contra carrera y la mejor en yardas totales concedidas.

Leía que (creo) que el mejor en yardas concedidas había sido finalista las 3 últimas SB's... este año por supuesto se rompe la racha...



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff
Equipos que quedan según DVOA - Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), ajustando por calendario rival, vaya. Bastante útil esta página.
Total: NE(1), DAL(2), ATL(3), PIT(5), KC(6), GB(7), SEA(9), HOU(29!)
Off: NE (2), DAL(4), ATL(1), PIT (8), KC 13), GB (4), SEA(17), HOU (30)
Deff: NE(16), DAL(17), ATL(27), PIT(11), KC(14), GB(20), SEA(5), HOU(7)
ST: NE(7), DAL(10), ATL(8), PIT(16), KC(2), GB(20), SEA(13), HOU(32)


Para un primerizo... podrías explicarme que es eso del DVOA y como influye, Gracias!


Resumiendo, ajusta las estadísticas de los equipos por el nivel del rival ("opponent-dependent), no es lo mismo correr contra los 49ers que correr contra los sijoks. Es un poco como los índices por posesiones en la nba que factorizan el ritmo del equipo. Las yardas totales o puntos por partido están bien pero no siempre el mejor ataque es el que anota más sino el que lo hace de forma más eficiente (Meter 21 en 10 drives o 17 en 4)
Luego ya son números por conseguir primeros downs, puntos extra por big plays, por hacerlo mejor o peor de lo que suele hacer el jugador medio contra ese rival, en esa distancia,... Tienes sus cosas (PHI altísimo este año, aunque los ST les dan muchos puntos, consiguieron a principio de temporada muchos retornos para TD) pero en general creo que es una medida bastante acertada. Mejor que los grades de pfffffff by far, en mi opinion

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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Espitama » 11 Ene 2017, 12:42

Y sobre todo sirven para dejar a Noirot con el culo al aire, así que bien.

Salve.
Que beban los pollos...

-You just kicked the shit out of an innocent man.
- Innocent? Innocent of what?

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Noirot
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Noirot » 11 Ene 2017, 12:48

Bueno, lo de crear estadisticas ad hoc para soportar nuestras tesis es muy de mi gremio, así que no le doy la más mínima relevancia a esas estadisticas que ha puesto guille y que ni él mismo ha leído detenidamente su cálculo. :roll:

Además, que yo sólo dije que había leído que los 3 últimos años, el equipo con menos yardas totales concedidas había llegado a la SB, que este año Texans era ese equipo y que por supuesto iba a romper la racha... lo cual será 100% cierto el próximo domingo. :mrgreen:
Sólo porque alguien sea miembro de una minoría étnica no significa que no sea un pequeño cabr0n desagradable.

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guille4s
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por guille4s » 11 Ene 2017, 13:01

Que los expertos calculen con sus excel correspondientes, que yo las sacaré cuando me interese.
Como cualquier buen aficionado. :brindo por eso: :forofan:
El "seahawks twitter" está bastante dentro en estadísticas avanzadas, yo me meto solo un poco.
Aún me acuerdo de la "DVOA bowl del partido contra PHI": https://theringer.com/nfl-week-11-recap-seattle-seahawks-russell-wilson-16ed1dea90c7#.3ey1qrtcp
The Seahawks’ current run falls into this line of thinking. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, head coach Pete Carroll’s team has won 53 games, third behind only Denver and New England. But even that figure doesn’t represent just how dominant Seattle has been. Russell Wilson and Co. have finished no. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA in each of the past four seasons, and after knocking off Philadelphia — the top-ranked DVOA team entering Week 11 — they’ll likely assume that spot again this week. The Seahawks’ advanced-metric supremacy has been so thorough that wide receiver Doug Baldwin is quoting the numbers in postgame interviews, to the delight of statheads everywhere.

Hasta jugadores:
Aunque claro, luego está lo de la combine para la OL el SPARQ y el https://3sigmaathlete.com/, que está saliendo de aquella manera: barato. :campeon:

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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por ravens » 11 Ene 2017, 16:01

Noirot escribió:Además, que yo sólo dije que había leído que los 3 últimos años, el equipo con menos yardas totales concedidas había llegado a la SB, que este año Texans era ese equipo y que por supuesto iba a romper la racha... lo cual será 100% cierto el próximo domingo. :mrgreen:

Bueno y nunca un equipo ha jugado la Superbowl en su estadio, así que o bien los Texans lo consiguen y rompen esa racha, o no lo consiguen y rompen la otra :D

Lo de las estadísticas y las rachas a estas alturas ya es de coña. Se inventan las que les da la gana :D
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Esplu » 11 Ene 2017, 16:33

DVOA EXPLAINED

One running back runs for three yards. Another running back runs for three yards. Which is the better run? This sounds like a stupid question, but it isn’t. In fact, this question is at the heart of nearly all of the analysis on Football Outsiders...



Muchas gracias por el aporte!!

Me ha resultado muy interesante el tema este del DVOA... justo el otro día viendo las Wildcards estábamos comentando que no todas las yardas "valen" lo mismo y aquí tenemos algo que nos da la razón :brindo por eso:
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Esplu » 11 Ene 2017, 16:38

Y hablando ahora de la divisionales: Quitando el Patriots-Texans, que yo diría que va a ser un pase para Brady y los suyos... Tenemos, a priori, tres partidazos del copón!!!

La vamos a gozar mucho más que en las WC que, por otro lado, no va a ser muy difícil porque quitando el NYG-GB, el resto fue bastante poco disputado... por decirlo finamente :rodar:
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Noirot » 11 Ene 2017, 17:23

La única "sorpresa" que veo es la victoria de Sijoks.
Sólo porque alguien sea miembro de una minoría étnica no significa que no sea un pequeño cabr0n desagradable.

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Re: RE: Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por enemigo » 11 Ene 2017, 19:28

Noirot escribió:La única "sorpresa" que veo es la victoria de Sijoks.

Para todo el mundo sería sorpresa, pero yo lo veo igualadisimo. Los Sijoks tienen el culo pelao en estos partidos, y no se dan por vencidos fácilmente. Aunque falcons es mejor equipo y juega en casa, claro.
Yo apuesto por Seattle, la carrera le funciona y la defensa puede contener un poco el ataque de Atlanta, que estaba siendo un vendaval.
En lo demás apuesto por Packers, más por simpatía que por convencimiento, y por PIT, que los Chiefs me resultan un coñazo.
El texans-patriots es que ni lo voy a ver.

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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por ravens » 12 Ene 2017, 00:15

Pats, Steelers, Packers, Falcons.
Packers > Patriots
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Frozen » 12 Ene 2017, 01:12

Apuesto por lo mismo pero con Patriots ganando. O al menos eso espero. Confío todavía en Falcons como último rayo de esperanza de evitar una victoria de Packers o Cowbows en la NFC.
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por T'chai He-zen » 12 Ene 2017, 07:51

A los Packers les va a caer la del pulpo, +14 antes del descanso para el equipo de Amerrica.

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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por guille4s » 12 Ene 2017, 09:58

Pats, Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks.
A lo loco

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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por phoskiter » 12 Ene 2017, 10:43

Yo veo dificil que mis Chiefs eliminen a estos Steelers, sobre todo por la baja de Derrick Johnson, si tenemos algo mas de opciones es por jugar en Arrowhead, pero... muy dificil. Eso que este año hemos jugado mejor en ataque, con un Alex Smith algo mas profundo que de costumbre, con un Kelce que es el mejor TE de la liga (despues de Gronk) y con un sorprendente Tyreek Hill, que ha hecho una temporada digna de mejor rookie del año (ni nominado...), aun asi, la defensa no es tan buena como creen, es muy oportunista y roba muchos balones. Contra la carrera sufrimos muchisimo sin DJ, y aqui viene el problema... Bell es el mejor RB de largo y nos puede hacer un hijo. La recuperacion de Houston puede ser buena , si somos capaces de aguantar a Bell (que lo dudo), para amargar a un Ben que creo que esta a su nivel mas bajo en años. Pero PITTS tiene una buena defensa, solo flojea su secundaria, por lo que nos costara correr, Maclin puede ser clave aqui. Imagino que Peters se encargara de Brown, y me da miedo el WR2 pues nuestros CB flojean... aunque Mitchell ha jugado bien los ultimos partidos. En definitiva, a muchos puntos no vamos a ganar nunca, espero que robemos algun balon con Peters o Berry , algun retorno de Hill y comernos el tiempo para poder ganar, todo lo que no sea esto, complica todo. De lo que si estoy contento este año, es que hemos competido con todos (excepto Steelers, 43-14) de tu a tu, y eso ya es mucho, para una franquicia que hace años estaba a la deriva, mas ganar una Divisional complicadisima.

Go Chiefs¡¡
Si te encuentras en el camino, mira de frente lo que has de andar y de espalda lo ya andado.....
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por elvis vive » 12 Ene 2017, 11:01

Falcons, Patriots, Stealers y Packers

Y la superbowl Patriots-Falcons
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Re: NFL 2015/2016 -- SB 50: BRONCOS CAMPEONAN: PEYTON ALCANZA A PALOMO (DE MOMENTO)

por Espitama » 12 Ene 2017, 11:47

La verdad es que me apetece ver todos los partidos, todos tienen algo interesante, pero el KC - Pittsburgh es quizás el que más me gusta. Arrowhead en PO seguro que es una caldera y soy bastante fan de lo que Reid ha hecho a este equipo. No serán los más vistosos de la Liga pero de dónde los cogió a donde los tiene es muy meritorio. Una pena la lesión de Charles porque con él era el juego terrestre más variado de toda la Liga.

Veo favorito a Pittsburgh pero no descarto sorpresa.

Sobre mis Pats, tanto favoritismo me mosquea.

Salve.
Que beban los pollos...

-You just kicked the shit out of an innocent man.
- Innocent? Innocent of what?

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Fecha actual 27 Ene 2021, 09:50